About A-EFFort

The Athens Effective Solar Flare Forecasting (A-EFFort) is an on-line solar-flare prediction service that monitors, evaluates, and provides advance warning of intense solar flare activity. It comprises a web-based interface and an automated flare forecasting tool relying on the effective connected magnetic field strength (B_eff) of eligible active regions (ARs) identified on full-disk SDO/HMI line-of-sight magnetogram data. Detailed technical elements of this activity are provided in the product info page.

The service provides probabilities for major flares, but on full disk and on individual active regions. Probabilities have zero latency (i.e., they are effective immediately), a 24-hour forecast window and they are refreshed every three (3) hours. End users access the forecast through the SWE Service Portal and its registration services. The service is established within the framework of the Solar Weather Expert Service Centre (ESC) with the service Contractor, namely the Research Center for Astronomy and Applied Mathematics (RCAAM) of the Academy of Athens, acting as an Expert Group (EG) associated with the Solar Weather ESC. Integration of the service is at Level 2 (adopted), meaning that the service is managed at the EG home institute (RCAAM) and integrates the SWE Portal’s Identity and Single Sign-on subsystem. The current planning secures 3.5 years of uninterrupted A-EFFort service.

This web page forms part of the ESA Space Situational Awareness Programme's network of space weather service development activities, and is supported under ESA contract number 4000111994/14/D/MPR. Please note that all SSA-SWE service developments are under review and testing and should not at this stage be used for operational purposes. For further product-related information or enquiries contact helpdesk. E-mail: helpdesk.swe@ssa.esa.int All publications and presentations using data obtained from this site should acknowledge the A-EFFort service and ESA/SSA-SWE.

For further information about space weather in the ESA Space Situational Awareness Programme see: www.esa.int/spaceweather Access the SSA-SWE portal here: swe.ssa.esa.int